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ArizonaMule Deer

AZ Mule Deer Unit 15D

Total Acres
560,136
Public Land
69%
Elevation
454–5,197 ft

Terrain Difficulty

Steepness
6° avg slope
Extreme Slopes
18° steepest 10%
Ruggedness
±8° variability
Vertical Relief
4,743 ft relief
Altitude
5,197 ft max
Remoteness
0% wilderness

Moderate terrain — over 4,743 ft of vertical relief and broken, dissected terrain.

AI Scout Preview

AZ 15D — Tactical Analysis. Terrain & Access AZ 15D spans from low desert (454 ft) to high country (5,197 ft), offering diverse habitat across 560,000 acres with strong public-land access at 69%. The Coronado National Forest's Safford District anchors much of the unit and provides mapped access points and road networks—essential for hunters new to the area. The elevation range supports both open desert hunting and forested ridges, creating multiple hunting strategies depending on conditions and deer preference. Herd Quality Recent wildlife surveys indicate an above-average buck:doe ratio of 31:100, reflecting solid herd composition and reasonable..

Read the full AI Scout verdict on this unit — drawability at your point level, trophy potential, access, and where to focus. Free account, no card.

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Draw Odds — What It Took to Draw (2024)

Actual results from the 2024 draw, per hunt. Current-year odds at your point level with a paid plan →

Muzzleloader #1182

NonresidentEst. draw odds by point level (2022 draw)
0 pts → 33.3%1 pts → 55.9%2 pts → 85.6%

Bonus draw — more points always means better odds. Estimated from the 2022 draw.

ResidentEst. draw odds by point level (2022 draw)
0 pts → 31.8%1 pts → 53.6%2 pts → 82.0%

Bonus draw — more points always means better odds. Estimated from the 2022 draw.

Muzzleloader #1183

NonresidentEst. draw odds by point level (2022 draw)
0 pts → 33.3%1 pts → 55.9%2 pts → 85.6%3 pts → 100.0%

Bonus draw — more points always means better odds. Estimated from the 2022 draw.

ResidentEst. draw odds by point level (2022 draw)
0 pts → 31.8%1 pts → 53.6%2 pts → 82.0%3 pts → 100.0%

Bonus draw — more points always means better odds. Estimated from the 2022 draw.

Muzzleloader #1192

NonresidentEst. draw odds by point level (2022 draw)
0 pts → 33.3%1 pts → 55.9%2 pts → 85.6%

Bonus draw — more points always means better odds. Estimated from the 2022 draw.

ResidentEst. draw odds by point level (2022 draw)
0 pts → 31.8%1 pts → 53.6%2 pts → 82.0%3 pts → 100.0%

Bonus draw — more points always means better odds. Estimated from the 2022 draw.

Muzzleloader Any #1182

NonresidentEst. draw odds by point level (2023 draw)
0 pts → 26.9%1 pts → 46.8%2 pts → 74.3%

Bonus draw — more points always means better odds. Estimated from the 2023 draw.

ResidentEst. draw odds by point level (2023 draw)
0 pts → 23.8%4 pts → 100.0%5 pts → 100.0%

Bonus draw — more points always means better odds. Estimated from the 2023 draw.

Muzzleloader Any #1183

NonresidentEst. draw odds by point level (2023 draw)
0 pts → 26.9%3 pts → 100.0%5 pts → 100.0%

Bonus draw — more points always means better odds. Estimated from the 2023 draw.

ResidentEst. draw odds by point level (2023 draw)
0 pts → 23.8%2 pts → 64.2%5 pts → 100.0%

Bonus draw — more points always means better odds. Estimated from the 2023 draw.

Muzzleloader Any #1185

NonresidentEst. draw odds by point level (2024 draw)
0 pts → 20.2%6 pts → 100.0%

Bonus draw — more points always means better odds. Estimated from the 2024 draw.

ResidentEst. draw odds by point level (2024 draw)
0 pts → 29.4%3 pts → 100.0%5 pts → 100.0%

Bonus draw — more points always means better odds. Estimated from the 2024 draw.

Show all 10 hunts ↓

Muzzleloader Any #1186

NonresidentEst. draw odds by point level (2024 draw)
0 pts → 20.2%3 pts → 60.1%4 pts → 92.1%

Bonus draw — more points always means better odds. Estimated from the 2024 draw.

ResidentEst. draw odds by point level (2024 draw)
0 pts → 29.4%5 pts → 100.0%6 pts → 100.0%

Bonus draw — more points always means better odds. Estimated from the 2024 draw.

Muzzleloader Any #1192

NonresidentEst. draw odds by point level (2023 draw)
1 pts → 46.8%2 pts → 74.3%

Bonus draw — more points always means better odds. Estimated from the 2023 draw.

ResidentEst. draw odds by point level (2023 draw)
0 pts → 23.8%1 pts → 42.0%2 pts → 64.2%

Bonus draw — more points always means better odds. Estimated from the 2023 draw.

Muzzleloader Any #1195

NonresidentEst. draw odds by point level (2024 draw)
0 pts → 20.2%1 pts → 36.5%

Bonus draw — more points always means better odds. Estimated from the 2024 draw.

ResidentEst. draw odds by point level (2024 draw)
0 pts → 29.4%1 pts → 50.1%2 pts → 67.6%

Bonus draw — more points always means better odds. Estimated from the 2024 draw.

Muzzleloader Early #1192

NonresidentEst. draw odds by point level (2022 draw)
0 pts → 12.5%1 pts → 25.0%2 pts → 68.8%

Bonus draw — more points always means better odds. Estimated from the 2022 draw.

ResidentEst. draw odds by point level (2022 draw)
0 pts → 29.0%1 pts → 58.1%2 pts → 100.0%3 pts → 100.0%

Bonus draw — more points always means better odds. Estimated from the 2022 draw.

2025 draw results are in

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What are YOUR odds this year?

Last year's results tell you what it took — not what it'll take. HuntPilot runs state-specific simulators (preference, bonus-squared, pool-aware, waste-adjusted) to show your odds at your exact point count, plus multi-year projections and point-creep analysis.

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Harvest Data

Historical data (2022–2023). Current-year data with a paid plan →

YearWeaponHuntersHarvestSuccess
2023Muzzleloader #119219842.0%
2023Muzzleloader #1182882528.0%
2023Muzzleloader #1183772735.0%
2022Muzzleloader #11821432719.0%
2022Muzzleloader #1183861619.0%
2022Muzzleloader #1192201050.0%

Season Dates

YearWeaponDatesTag TypeSex
2025Muzzleloader Any #1185 — 1185Oct 24, 2025Nov 2, 2025male
2025Muzzleloader Any #1186 — 1186Nov 7, 2025Nov 13, 2025male
2025Muzzleloader Any #1187 — 1187Dec 12, 2025Dec 31, 2025male
2025Muzzleloader Any #1196 — 1196Oct 3, 2025Oct 12, 2025male

Trophy Data

Record-Book Entries
63
Avg Score
214.5
Top Score
276.8
Recent (5yr)
1

Herd Data

Buck : Doe

31per 100

2023 Survey

Fawn : Doe

34per 100

2023 Survey

Same Country, Other Species

Hunts that overlap this unit's ground.

Bighorn Sheep

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